What will it take for the bulls to change?

In this weeks Barrons the big money poll shows that most money managers are still bullish and expect a good close to the yar

"IT MUST REALLY TAKE A LOT TO SCARE AMERICA'S money managers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by 30%. Credit is near-impossible to get. A global recession looms, and the cost to clean up Wall Street's mess is climbing into the trillions. And yet, against these odds, 50% of the investment pros responding to our latest Big Money poll say they're bullish or very bullish about the stock market's prospects through the middle of next year.

Scott Pollack for Barron's

Like the rest of us, the Big Money managers have been chastened by the market's selloff this year, though they no doubt are cheering its spirited rally last week. Nor do they have heroic expectations for the Dow and its beaten-down brethren. But they expect the tide to turn for stocks -- and sentiment -- in coming months, as governments around the world mount a coordinated effort to end the financial crisis and get lending back on track. Besides, bargains abound in almost every sector.

The Big Money bulls see the Dow ending the year at 10,642, which implies a gain of 1,317 points, or 14%, from current levels. While that forecast seems optimistic, it still would leave the blue chips down about 20% for all of 2008.

Our respondents - a cross-section of the nation's institutional investors -- see similarly elastic moves for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. They predict the S&P will rebound to 1141 by year end, up 18% from here, but end the year down 22%. The Nasdaq Composite could rally to 2013, up 17% in the next two months, but post a 25% loss for the full year.

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