Once again I return to the 1929 comparison as illustrated below on a relative index level. It can been seen that the range from the low in November to the high in December more or less have been the same.
The actual index levels are seen below.
If 1929 price action is any guide we should probably drift a little down from here on and until the end of the year. Of course we didn't have option expiration in 1929 and an "All In" Poker inspired FOMC in the final weeks of 1929, so a short term move over 920 to 940 in S&P is a high probability outcome.
Again first quarter 1930 looked like this. After a calm start to the year markets took off in the middle part of January (Obama inauguration)
Followed by this move in the second quarter.
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1 comment:
Stocks rose in 1930 as dividends were still rising...
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,740538,00.html
Do you believe dividends to rise in 2009? :-o
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