Waiting for the reaction

So now we all wait for the number or more precisely the reaction to the numbers. Is Obama indicating a higher than expected number or is he just taking the usual CEO approach and talk down expectations before he takes over.

But as discussed yesterday the reaction is more important than the numbers and at least last night the equity markets seems to say that they believe in the contrarian move we have been used to on negative surprises lately.

If we get the "expected" weaker data than economist expectations then we trade down in S&P, make a faster than expected come-back and then the real test of the contrarian sentiment will come into the US afternoon.

The real surprise today would be a better than expected - but still weak number - where equities don't rally.

Bunds seems to have found some footing again here in the last 24 hours ... after the weak auctions ... indication for later today?

and as my friend Mark observes it looks like we go into NFP numbers in the middle of the Bollinger band so buy 126 call and 121.5 puts ...