The final result for US equities in first half of 2009 compared with 1930, 2003 and 2008 shows an development ending with a small plus and a path looking very much like the path in 2003 when we came out of the last bear market. No doubt that, this is the hope for most investors as can also be seen from the buying coming into the market this morning.
The development in the second half was as shown below in 1930, 2003 and 2008.
In all periods as relatively calm first few months before the action sets in. This is probably also why VIX is looking like this:
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