All the way back on April 13, I wrote the following:
"On the other hand, I have a crazy feeling that as we have been writing history over the last few years, it would not be a huge surprise to see a bear market rally of more than 50% as in the 1930's before we roll-over again later in the summer - that would leave a S&P target of 1000 within the next few months - surely an extreme outcome considering the expectations for S&P earnings for 2009 in the $ 30-50 range and the enormous economic challenges confronting the world economy. But it would surely be enough to convince everyone we are through the worst and laying the ideal foundation for the next leg down in the bear market."
Unfortunately on May, I began to be negative on Equities again and more or less kept that stance since then.
"Today for the first time in many weeks I getting negative on equities ... but maybe I am getting too early as we still have 100 points to go the reach the 1000 level on S&P that I talked about four weeks ago, but I most admit I start to see sell signals in many places."
This was clearly a mistake - after a short period late in June/early July - as we now have reached the famous 1000 level and it is clear from this long term monthly chart that the 1000 level is very important.
Considering the extreme move in the last four weeks a correction - at the minimum - should be in the offering, but I would stop myself out on any move above 1010-1020 as that could lead to a fast move to 1100 before US Labour day. I guess the problem is that, I am not the only one looking to short the market here at 1000.
Just how impressive the move have been so far in the second half so far is illustrated on the following chart
Some good updated charts.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment